I see there is great passion on this- as it should be. I believe there will be uncertainty for a few weeks/ months. But countries will see tariffs as futile against the U.S. , they will lower theirs to get us to lower ours. In the end, products become more affordable. My humble belief is 2-3 months turmoil and great settling of the markets afterwards. Hell, maybe pay even starts to even up to costs. This has happened before. I think by August, at the latest, things will iron out.
I find it kind of funny that the ChiCom leaders speak of just getting new/replacement trading partners. Like it would be simple - turning on a light switch. But if it was so easy, it would have been done before.
There is so much that I do not know. But I do know that US consumers like to spend money, and US & OUS economies benefit significantly because of this. And when prices go up, savvy US consumers (where possible - not daily necessities) reduce their buying. Reduced buying means demand for fewer goods. Demand for fewer goods means fewer manufacturing jobs (which seem, these days, to be mostly OUS). Fewer manufacturing jobs means less money in workers pockets, which leads to their questioning their dear leaders. Dear leaders don't like to be questioned by the masses (especially coming off things like a (China) push to go into debt to get a college degree followed by no good paying jobs, and huge failures in the real estate development market because folks could no longer afford to even think about purchasing the millions of homes being built).
No, if it was quick, easy, economical and feasible to lose your ability to sell in the US market and fill that void with a different market, it would already have been done. But the reality is that the US market is just too large and valuable to lose.
So if things don't sell, prices will have to be brought down, and I see that having to come from the manufacturing (more than distribution/sales) side.
Or a route will have to be found by the leadership to deal with the current US administration, without losing face. Too much questioning by the masses, who are out of jobs, for too long a period can lead to revolutions.
It is a bit of a shame that US companies aren't really poised to increase production at US facilities, mainly due to so many regulations and restrictions. I never understood why the government in states like CA wanted to regulate things like cattle due to their polluting methane emissions. Great, regulate more businesses to death and send more of our food supply out of the US and into, say, Mexico. That way all of the methane emissions would no longer effect us as they would be stopped at the International Border?
Note: This all comes from a Biologist, not an Economist. But then again, I seen some things...
