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AAFTA GP course optimization

For many shooting in the AAFTA GP circuit, the goal is to maximize their number of GP points. Some likely will decide to attend a specific GP match on whether they think that they can improve their GP score. Under the current GP points rules, it’s possible to unknowingly put your constituency at a disadvantage in relation to other GP courses. There are a few simple things that a match director can do to avoid this:

1) Make sure that your course is a 36T average difficulty.

2) Keep the Troyer standard deviation as low as possible.

3) Try to set a course where environmental conditions are just enough so that you can check the boxes. Targets with severe environmental conditions garner no additional points.

If done incorrectly, the possible GP points available at your match will be too low to benefit any contenders in the AAFTA GP. However, if you put on a GP match every year, where it becomes known that shooters have a better chance to improve their GP position, you’ll ultimately attract more shooters.
 
For many shooting in the AAFTA GP circuit, the goal is to maximize their number of GP points. Some likely will decide to attend a specific GP match on whether they think that they can improve their GP score. Under the current GP points rules, it’s possible to unknowingly put your constituency at a disadvantage in relation to other GP courses. There are a few simple things that a match director can do to avoid this:

1) Make sure that your course is a 36T average difficulty.

2) Keep the Troyer standard deviation as low as possible.

3) Try to set a course where environmental conditions are just enough so that you can check the boxes. Targets with severe environmental conditions garner no additional points.

If done incorrectly, the possible GP points available at your match will be too low to benefit any contenders in the AAFTA GP. However, if you put on a GP match every year, where it becomes known that shooters have a better chance to improve their GP position, you’ll ultimately attract more shooters.
Thanks Scott,

To add some detail to your great post...
Match Directors don't need to have more than 50 shots per day, even though we know it's harder to shoot 90% on a 60 shot course, than and 50 shot course.
There is no need to set any targets over 40T or even 36T for that matter. The competitors will have a better GP score if all the targets are 36T and it's a mildly windy day and you have as many as possible targets slightly elevated up or down, or shaded. In theory, with at least half the boxes checked the leading scorers will be well above the number shots on the course with their scores, as you can see on some of the scores currently posted on the AAFTA website https://www.aafta.org/current-season-results.html

Under the current scoring rules, a 100 shot match that's 33.1T without environment factors with most of the boxes checked will produce a 40T course with factors and result in the following scores:
75/100 = a GP score of 101.25
80/100 = 108 GP
85/100 = 114.75 GP points
90/100 = 121.5 GP points
95/100 = 128.25 GP points and with out the factors, the 95% score would be 114 on a 36T course and 95 on a 30T course.

The main issues we think need to be addressed are the standard deviation should be factored in otherwise MDs are motivated to set boring courses with all shots the same difficulty. And we all know it's the 40-50T targets that separate the top shooters and decide the winners, we need to motivate to have high ST DEV courses.
Second, the degree of wind speed, and incline up or down needs to be factored in as well. A match with 4mph winds is rated the same as one with 20mph winds, ( we DO see those days in Nevada GPs some years). A 15 degree elevated shot is ranked the same as a 30 degree in the formula. How much shade or shadows count? How can all the MDs across the nation grade these factors equally with the current formula?


So, until the formula is changed, It's important for fairness to all GP competitors for all the match directors across the nation to know how to set a course that will not cause a disadvantage for their competitors in the GP scoring.

I would like to see the AAFTA BoG redo their formula they just enacted this year for next year or re-compute this years scores with a better formula. I know the BoG is doing their best to make the GP scoring as fair as possible with this change, but Scott and I think the formula could be improved on..

Wayne Burns
Match Director
Ashland Air Rifle Ranges
AirGun Oregon
 
Wayne, when calculating GP points in a 100 shot match, the divisor in the formula is (Match Shots/120), so use (100/120) as the divisor, not 100.

That renders the numbers of shots irrelevant in the GP points tally. Rifles matches are now all “normalized” to 120.
Yes, I corrected for that and, That's how I calculated those scores in the last post... with a factor of 0.833333 instead of 1.0 which a 120 shot match would be.
 
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….

The main issues we think need to be addressed are the standard deviation should be factored in otherwise MDs are motivated to set boring courses with all shots the same difficulty. …

AirGun Oregon
I don’t think the intent of the GP scoring changes was to make courses “boring”. But courses will gravitate towards 36T with low SD. That would be called a perverse incentive.

Under the current GP scoring rules, that’s what can/will/should happen. It’s the natural outcome. And if we can make match directors aware of it, it will progress faster and even things out.
 
As an outside observer and someone that doesn't compete on the GP circuit, I don't agree with the Troyer number being promoted as truth in a calculation. As indicated in the prior posts in this thread, there is not enough granularity in the calc to make it a true representation of a course such that one course can be compared to any other course. Averaging the value across all targets on the course also removes all the details of the difficulty.

Observing the scores that have been posted to date, I have noticed what I would claim as abuse of the scoring system, where at least one GP tacked on a ton of environmental factors to inflate the difficulty such that someone was able to score higher than the perceived max score of 120. If the course was as hard as it was claimed, no one should be able to score more than the weighted number of targets presented on the course. This means there would need to be a cap on the reported Troyer value, such that even if the environmental factors pumped this number to above 36, you can only report 36. After placing a cap, the next level of abuse is everyone will just report a 36, like I made a 32 difficulty and just tacked on environmental mods until I got it to 36. If everyone is going to report a 36, then the number means nothing in the scoring calculation. There would need to be very specific and objective way to derive the difficulty so there is no room for interpretation, and possibly need to be calculated by a third-party not competing for GP points so an impartial result is formed.

The Troyer value is a very useful tool to help design courses and provides some great guide lines to help the course designer setup a balanced course, but it is a tool, not a truth. At our club, I usually setup courses that are between 28 and 30T difficulty, but the scores seem to reflect what people score on 34T courses at other clubs. So, there is some special sauce at our club that is not captured in the Troyer calculation.

Here are some examples of difficulty that may not be captured in the Troyer calc:
  • Weather: Rain, Sun, too hot, too cold
  • Are uphill shots harder than downhill shots. To me, it seems more uncomfortable to shoot uphill compared to downhill.
  • As previously mentioned, degrees of intensity for wind and angle of shot.
  • Uneven shooting pads.
  • Wind may not be a factor if the wind is consistently blowing from the same direction as the sight in targets. So, heavy wind is not the same as inconsistent wind.
  • Physical fitness requirements, like length of walk to get through the course

For GP scoring it can be difficult to come up with a number that fairly represents all pockets of talent and further separated by their given classes and across the fragmented and regionalized pockets of competitors. The scoring system used in prior years, scoring as a percent of max score, was reasonably fair, and is a methodology incorporated in other shooting sports where no comparable course of fire between events exists. On a given day, everyone shot the same course, so we know what is possible on that day by the highest score recorded. A few things that needs to hold true for the % of max method is the expectation an experienced shooter will be in attendance at the match to set the benchmark, and there is an adequate quorum of shooters at the match per any delineations to determine the benchmark. If we can agree there is reasonable parity amongst the most experienced shooters regardless of division, then this methodology should work.

Perhaps a better answer isn't within a magic calculation, instead, the only way to declare a winner is to shoot head to head. Use a qualification scoring methodology, and the top 3 shooters in each division/class get squadded together at nationals. Which ever of those 3 come out on top at nats gets the GP season win. If you don't go to nats, you can't win the GP season. Alternatively, the GP series can be regionalized, and each region can declare its own champion, and there is no national GP winner; separately there is someone that wins nationals.
 
In my opinion, it is pointless to try to make a bunch of courses across the country produce balanced scores. I think we need to go back to the GP points for each match being a percentage of the high score shot by the class and division winners. I'm sure someone will quickly remind me why we stopped doing that, but it feels like the most fair way to calculate GP points. If you shot an easy GP or a hard GP, you still have to shoot well against the other shooters to get points. The only people hurt by this are people that don't have enough shooters in their class. But if you are showing up to a GP shooting Open Piston, you should have a pretty good idea that your GP points will be generated off of the Hunter Piston high score. Open PCP, you might be shooting against the Hunter PCP shooters. WFTF piston, you will be getting the short end of the stick by competing against WFTF PCP.

I would even be agreeable to putting all of the piston shooters together for GP points, and separating them back out by division for National recognition. So if you had a GP with 6 WFTF piston shooters and 2 Hunter Piston shooters, if the Hunter Piston winner shot 75% of the WFTF piston winner's score, the Hunter Piston winner would receive 75 GP points, not 100. If the Hunter Piston winner wants more GP points, they can go to a different GP and shoot better.

My point is that GP points should be a reflection of the shooter's ability against the strength of the field, not the strength of the course. You can't have a Competition without some competition.
 
The last two posts are excellent. Different matches can never be truly equalized. Can't combine divisions though.
Rich B.
Consolidating Classes
1. Per Power Plant: If there are not enough shooters of a given Power Plant to create a class in any Division, for example: (Hunter Piston < quorum) AND (Open Piston < quorum) AND (WFTF Piston < quorum), the Match Director may create an overall Power Plant class (e.g., a Piston Class). In this case shooters compete following the rules of their respective Division (i.e., WFTF shooters follow WFTF rules, and so on.).
2. Per Division: If there are not enough shooters to create classes in each Division, for example:(Open Piston < quorum) AND (Open PCP < quorum), the Match Director may create an overall class for the Division (e.g., an Open Class).
3. Per Class: If there are not enough shooters to create a class in a given Division, for example:(WFTF Piston < quorum), those shooters may compete in another Division provided that they comply with the rules of that Division (e.g., WFTF Piston shooters competing in the Open Piston class). Piston shooters also have the option of competing in the PCP class of their own Division.

Divisions and classes are combined all the time for the purposes of match prizes, so why not do it for GP points? Giving someone 100 GP points for being the only Open Piston shooter is not very fair, but not giving any GP points will discourage participation for shooters that aren't in the big 2 (Hunter PCP, WFTF PCP).

Looking at recent GP events, Hunter Springer either has more than 5 shooters or 0 shooters for a given GP. There were two GPs last year that had 1 or 2 Hunter Springer shooters and only one of those shooters attended enough GPs for the points to matter.

Last year, every GP had either zero or one Open Springer shooter.

This year there has been one GP with more than 4 Hunter Springers and one GP with exactly 4 Open Springers, and it was the same GP (Cajuns).
 
The last two posts are excellent. Different matches can never be truly equalized. Can't combine divisions though.
Rich B.
Sorry, Rich. I just realized that you said two nice things and one thing I don't agree with, so I jumped all over the thing I don't agree with. I appreciate your contribution to the discussion and I hope I didn't come off like a jerk in my response to your post.
 
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In my opinion, it is pointless to try to make a bunch of courses across the country produce balanced scores. I think we need to go back to the GP points for each match being a percentage of the high score shot by the class and division winners. I'm sure someone will quickly remind me why we stopped doing that, but it feels like the most fair way to calculate GP points. If you shot an easy GP or a hard GP, you still have to shoot well against the other shooters to get points. The only people hurt by this are people that don't have enough shooters in their class. But if you are showing up to a GP shooting Open Piston, you should have a pretty good idea that your GP points will be generated off of the Hunter Piston high score. Open PCP, you might be shooting against the Hunter PCP shooters. WFTF piston, you will be getting the short end of the stick by competing against WFTF PCP.

I would even be agreeable to putting all of the piston shooters together for GP points, and separating them back out by division for National recognition. So if you had a GP with 6 WFTF piston shooters and 2 Hunter Piston shooters, if the Hunter Piston winner shot 75% of the WFTF piston winner's score, the Hunter Piston winner would receive 75 GP points, not 100. If the Hunter Piston winner wants more GP points, they can go to a different GP and shoot better.

My point is that GP points should be a reflection of the shooter's ability against the strength of the field, not the strength of the course. You can't have a Competition without some competition.
The old way of scoring the Grand Prix was EVERYONE was calculated from the overall high score. The high score in a division was not a factor... except to win that class for match prizes, but not for the GP scoring.

I do agree that it was better than the new formula.
 
I have only shot in one GP (whatever that is) and I did so with my TX200.
Somehow I was included in the PCP Hunter scoring?🤔
Frank, sometimes they make a mistake in the data entry. Send an email to [email protected] and they will fix it.

The Grand Prix (GP) used to be scored by using the highest overall score, for 100% and every other score, no matter the class was a percentage of that high score. It worked pretty well, because of the difficulty of comparing the courses shot in the GPs.

I'm not sure what exactly the AAFTA BoG was trying to fix, maybe the difficulty for piston class shooters to get a decent score.

Maybe, the Piston classes GP should be scored, with the Highest Piston score from all piston classes being 100% and all other Piston classes getting a percentage of that high score, not the Overall High Score.

Then it would be High PCP score and High Piston score, each getting a 100% in their class. All other PCP competitors get a percentage of the High PCP score, and All Piston competitors get a percentage of the High Piston score.
 
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The previous scoring method had everyone at a particular match competing against each other for maximum GP points. Winner got 100 points. So it was important to have a sufficient number of shooters (15 minimum) to have a deep enough talent pool to compete against.

Now that we are competing against the course rather than other shooters, the number of shooters at a GP match doesn’t really matter. The 15 shooter requirement could be eliminated and it won’t make a difference in the GP points at any given match.
 
The talent pool doesn't need to be deep to get a reasonable benchmark score for the % of top score method to function, but it does require talent to show up to the match. If the match does not have a collection of top talent shooters in the area, or at least one at the match, then the scores can be skewed to the favor of a lesser skilled shooter. The lesser shooter only benefits if this can happen at three GP events to make it significant, because when one match occurs where the top talent does show up, it will correct the lower skilled shooter's score.

Pretty sure the new methodology was created in an attempt to solve the following hypothetical situation. Someone thought it was unfair for their Hunter score to be compared to the top Open PCP shooter in the East with the belief that all the competitors showing up to GPs in the West were just a bunch of hacks. So, hunter east guy would shoot a 52 and get compared to Open PCP guy that shoots a 58; but Western hunter is the top score at a match and he only shot a 52. East guy gets 89 GP points, west guy gets 100 GP points. Repeat the similar situation over 3 matches where East guy never shoots against west guy, and East guy thinks he should be the GP national winner because he only shot against the best in the East, and it was unfair for a west guy to be awarded the national GP win because west guy never shot against any talented shooter.

The reality is no matter what you do, if the two shooters never compete against each other, you will not know who is actually the better shooter. If head to head shooting is off the table, at best we can come up with some BCS Football way to score people to compare them in hypothetical situations, but we never really know the answer of who is actually better.

The % of top score is a good methodology if you have a bunch of the same shooters shooting the same set of matches against each other, and it would work great to crown a regional champ. It's also a good way to generally determine the top 3 or 4 shooters across the nation to qualify for a head to head shoot off at nationals to determine which of those 3 or 4 is the GP National Cup winner. It's like the Race for The Cup NASCAR series, you first qualify, then you get to compete for the season prize.

I think a good idea is to go back to scoring as % of top overall shooter for GP events, and the top 4 in each class/division qualify for the final showdown at the Nationals, put them all on the same squad and it's a head-to-head shoot off at Nats. If you don't go to Nationals, you can't win the GP Cup. Maybe for those that can't make the Nats, have some kind of recognition that they qualified. And, for the 5th shooter that thinks they were unfairly robbed of their qualification spot, some advise for next year - get better.

Another way to work with the % of top score calculation is to set a minimum threshold score, let's say it's 85% of the max possible score rounded up. So, for a 60 shot course, the benchmark is 60 * 0.85 = 51. You will be awarded the % of top score where top score is the greater of the top fired score or 85% of max possible. If the max score was a 50, then that person gets 50/51, and the person that shot a 48 gets 48/51. If instead the max score was a 55, then that person gets 55/55 (100%) and the person that shot a 48 gets 48/55. This is a way to hedge against cases where the top talent shooters don't show up to a specific event, or if the top talent has an off day. Maybe the benchmark score is 90% or 92% instead of 85%, that can be left up to someone else to analyze/argue about if this method is selected.
 
…. If the match does not have a collection of top talent shooters in the area, or at least one at the match, then the scores can be skewed to the favor of a lesser skilled shooter. …
I’ve been to a lot of GP matches. I’ve always seen at least one past national champ in attendance. And usually more than one.

But that no longer matters with the new scoring method.

Shootermeb, you make a lot of good points. I merely used your statement as an opportunity to emphasize a point. It now does not matter who you’re shooting against. The course now makes more difference than your competition. It’s important that match directors know that they can greatly affect the GP points available at their match.
 
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Here's an idea (Centercut, pay attention. You are going to love this!)

How about if instead of using the GP points to determine the national champion in each class, we use the National Championship to determine the national champion in each class. In order to be the class national champion, you have to have a minimum of 200 GP points in that class and you have to beat everyone else at the National Championship that has at least 200 GP points. So there is still incentive to shoot GPs, since they are now effectively qualifiers for Nationals. You can still shoot at Nationals without 200 GP points, you could even win your class at Nationals without 200 GP points, you just wouldn't be eligible for the title of Hunter PCP National Champion (or whatever class).

So, win two GPs and get 100 points at each, your in the championship hunt. Go to 10 GPs and score 20 points at each? You're in. Go to three GPs and get 65 points at each? Nope, you need to go to another GP and score at least 5 points in your class.

This would make GP attendance more important than the way we calculate GP points. It would also make Nationals a much bigger deal.

I would much rather see someone earn a national title with shooting skill against good competition than by figuring out how to game the GP points system, which appears to be the original point of this thread.

Before you start pooping on my idea, here's some stats:
Last year, the top 2 Hunter PCP shooters both attended Nationals, the rest of the top 5 didn't. So my proposed system wouldn't have had a different result.
All of the top 5 in WFTF PCP attended Nationals. Greg Suave shot the highest but only had 194 GP points, so the WFTF PCP National Champion would have been Lukas Richter. Pretty exciting. It almost would have been a 3 way shoot off! Drama!
Open PCP would have the same result, but Brian would have only won by a single point.
WFTF Springer had 5 shooters with 200+ GP points. Four of them attended Nationals and they shot in the same order that they ended up in the GP race. But, if you have to be present to win maybe Cameron would have attended and given Ken a run for his money.
Hunter Springer only had 1 shooter qualify, so he won it by default. But there were a few shooters that could have qualified with one more GP. You reach a point in the season where you say to yourself "I'm not going to catch the top shooter so there's no point in going to another GP match this year". With my idea, people are more likely to attend 3 or more GPs to get to that qualifying number.

Does this penalize people that don't attend Nationals? Absolutely. If you want to be the National champion, you should shoot in the National Championship. Better yet, you should WANT to shoot in the National Championship. Otherwise we have spreadsheets and algorithms determining the best shooters in the country. Don't let AI take over field target!

(Sorry about that last bit, I was trying to enflame my target audience with ridiculous rhetoric. In my defense, I've been watching the news a lot lately)
 
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I’m trying to avoid criticism of the new GP points rules. The faults can be dealt with, but it is necessary to point out some of those faults. The main purpose of this thread is to make match directors aware. The Troyer average is being used as a measure of course difficulty. But for the top shooters, that average by itself does not determine difficulty. Here is a fairly simple example, though you’ll need to follow it through. Let’s assume 120 shot matches:

Venue “A”, Troyer average is 36, SD is 2. That calculates to 120 GP points possible.

Venue “B”, Troyer average is 30, SD is 10. That calculates to 100 GP points available.

So “B” has less points available from the get go. But it gets worse.

For a 120 shot course, standard distributions on these two courses would result in:

Venue “A”
3 shots over 40 Troyer
1 of those shots is over 50 Troyer

Venue “B”
19 shots over 40 Troyer
3 of those shots is over 50 Troyer

So I’m more likely to miss more shots on course “B”. A double whammy.

“A” is considered “hard” under the Troyer average, while course “B” is considered “moderate”.

SD provides for an estimate of how many targets are harder than average, but that is not taken into account in the points tally. Match directors that set type “B” courses are unlikely to see any good GP performances at their matches. If match directors care, and are made aware of that disconnect, I think they will set courses accordingly.

FWIW: When I was a match director, working under the old GP points rules, I was more inclined to set type “B” courses.
 
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