this is the magic formula:
View attachment 504347 E = (kinetic) energy
m = mass
v = speed
it's not exactly exact because different pellets have different friction in the barrel etc, but it gets you in the right ballpark. When you're not changing the tune of your gun you can assume it produces the same energy with different pellet weights.
That is the basic formula for kinetic energy and you are correct that it is relevant because it illustrates the connection between mass and velocity, but the ratio formula provides a more straightforward calculation for predicting velocity changes based on weight differences: v₂ = v₁ × √(m₁ / m₂)
This formula simplifies the calculation because it directly compares the two pellet weights without needing to calculate kinetic energy separately. By using the velocity of the one pellet and masses of the two pellets, it quickly shows how a change in weight affects speed, making it easier to predict the new velocity.
Getting geeky with it...
v₁: Initial velocity of the lighter pellet (8.64 grains) = 780 fps
m₁: Mass of the lighter pellet = 8.64 grains
m₂: Mass of the heavier pellet = 10.5 grains
v₂: Velocity of the heavier pellet (which we want to find)
Substituting the values into the formula:
v₂ = 780 × √(8.64 / 10.5)
Calculating the mass ratio:
8.64 / 10.5 ≈ 0.8219
Taking the square root:
√(0.8219) ≈ 0.9066
Calculating v₂:
v₂ = 780 × 0.9066 ≈ 707.15 fps
So, the velocity of the 10.5-grain pellet would be approximately 707.15 fps, assuming no other changes.
You're also completely right that velocities won't necessarily scale perfectly this way. Several factors influence performance, including the gun’s design (barrel, twist rate, choke, harmonics), the type of projectile, and air pressure—not just the pellet’s mass, as you have smartly pointed out.