The difference between Skill ( the odds ) and Luck

[ThomasT]

Hello everyone,

This morning I shot a Squirrel with my .177 cal Diana Bandit with a Red Dot scope.

So you say, big deal folks do that all the time.

Well this shot was at 25-yards . Now I must admit that I have shot at this guy about a dozen times already and missed . This make me think what is Luck or Skill ? If you are aiming to place that tiny little Green Dot on a target at 10-meters then you would expect to hit or at least get close with a hit. But at 25-yards ?????

What do you fellows think.

ThomasT

 

[rsfrid]

Hello everyone,

This morning I shot a Squirrel with my .177 cal Diana Bandit with a Red Dot scope.

So you say, big deal folks do that all the time.

Well this shot was at 25-yards . Now I must admit that I have shot at this guy about a dozen times already and missed . This make me think what is Luck or Skill ? If you are aiming to place that tiny little Green Dot on a target at 10-meters then you would expect to hit or at least get close with a hit. But at 25-yards ?????

What do you fellows think.

ThomasT

Knowing you, Deputy Thomas, I'd say skill… but then how long since you got in some serious practice?

 

[elh0102]

If it will shoot groups at 25 yards small enough to stay in the kill zone, then hits or misses are the result of the shooter's input. Some might say luck, but to quote Gary Player, "the more I practice the luckier I get".

 

[Hateful McNasty]

Lol.. i shot one squirrel the other day dumb luck.

Was just going to scare him with a quick draw pot shot and rolled him over belly up dead.. well dont know if it was my dumb luck or just its bad luck.. kinda felt bad for the poor thing..

 

[ThomasT]

Knowing you, Deputy Thomas, I'd say skill… but then how long since you got in some serious practice?

Hello @rsfrid

Well Ross ever since I sold all of my rifles I have been forced to do a lot of Pistol shooting. Granted most is at 10-meters at paper targets. Then this little guy shows up at the Bird Feeder right at 25-yards and I shoot at him guessing how to adjust the rage from the Red Dot settings for 25-yards.

ThomasT

 

[ThomasT]

If it will shoot groups at 25 yards small enough to stay in the kill zone, then hits or misses are the result of the shooter's input. Some might say luck, but to quote Gary Player, "the more I practice the luckier I get".

Hello @elh0102

Really haven't tried shooting groups at 25-yards, I do shoot a lot at 10-meters and that is where I have the Red Dot zeroed. I'm leaning for "lucky".

ThomasT

 

[ThomasT]

Lol.. i shot one squirrel the other day dumb luck.

Was just going to scare him with a quick draw pot shot and rolled him over belly up dead.. well dont know if it was my dumb luck or just its bad luck.. kinda felt bad for the poor thing..

I'm guessing the Squirrel is thinking "bad luck" .

ThomasT

 

[beerthief]

I would say in your case 50/50 . 50 percent knowing your gun and 50 percent wind guessing .

 

[qball]

Level of luck has a peculiar correlation with level of skill.

 

[JimD]

I think you'd have to shoot at least a few 25 yard groups to have a better educated guess. If they are kill zone size it says one thing. If they are double or more kill zone size it says another.

Good shot in any event.

 

[Gerry52]

The whole purpose of being familiar & working with one's equipment, getting to know its idiosyncrasies & YOUR OWN, is to reduce the percentage of LUCK from the equation. There's always a certain amount of luck involved as we can never control ALL the situational variables but I don't think any top tier shooter would depend on luck, they'd want to reduce the luck factor to the lowest possible percentage. My hit to miss ratio IMHO is way more impressive than it was a couple years ago. A result of always striving to improve the luck to skill ratio. Most of my experience is with pcp's & 25 yard shots are a no brainer. I never zero below 50 yards so it's hard to relate to the level of difficulty (or luck) with a springer.
EDIT: OH, I get it NOW! Bandit is a PISTOL! What a lucky shot!

 

[Long_Gun_Dallas]

I got one with my bandit at roughly 25 yards as well using a knock off trijicon rmr. Gun was tuned to 6.8fpe and shooting 8gr wadcutters. Dropped like a sack of rocks. I have to wonder what the fpe was by the time the eadcutyer got to him. 5 fpe? Less?

 

[Revoman]

Sounds to me like you may need to take a few shots at the 25 yard mark on paper to see where the pellet lands. Although only .83 yard difference (is my math right?), I wouldn't think that it would make that much difference?
As with almost all shooting disciplines, except shotgun, shooting your wobble with a slow, steady trigger pull and ultimately, follow through, is king when shooting pistolas. Though I'm certain that you would know all of that.
Of course, there's always a dependency on good equipment.
OR....it could have been the force was with you!
mike

 

[hawkeye69]

The more I practice, the luckier I get.

 

[ThomasT]

I got one with my bandit at roughly 25 yards as well using a knock off trijicon rmr. Gun was tuned to 6.8fpe and shooting 8gr wadcutters. Dropped like a sack of rocks. I have to wonder what the fpe was by the time the eadcutyer got to him. 5 fpe? Less?

Hello @Long_Gun_Dallas

We are close, I'm shooting 500 fps and was using JSB Diabolo 7.33gr domed. This is 4.07fpe at the muzzle and the Squirrel just kicked a couple of times and was it. It just wasn't his day

ThomasT

 

[ThomasT]

The more I practice, the luckier I get.

Hello @hawkeye69

As I had admitted that I had "practice" shot at this guy about a dozen times before and really got lucky this time.

ThomasT

 

[beerthief]

I got one with my bandit at roughly 25 yards as well using a knock off trijicon rmr. Gun was tuned to 6.8fpe and shooting 8gr wadcutters. Dropped like a sack of rocks. I have to wonder what the fpe was by the time the eadcutyer got to him. 5 fpe? Less?

i find wadcutters to be devastating on critters . i used a Webley Tempest on 'possums and coons in my yard just splattered their brains .

 

[specie]

I think you're a lucky marksman, but also that it's unethical to make multiple attempts kill a living creature at that distance with that equipment. It would be more understandable if your skill was such that you expect a kill on your first attempt. A dozen attempts?

 

[Motorhead]

RED-DOT optics are a fickle bunch ... PENDING what MOA Size the actual dot is ? makes a Huge difference to the Skill or Luck question

25 yards with a typical 3 moa Red dot .... Lot of Luck IMO
Tho with a 1 moa Dot ... Skill has the upper hand IMO.

Or something like that ... Lol

 

[ThomasT]

Hello again,

OK, just for grins I decided to brave the heat ( 99f / feel like 102f / wind 4 to 5 ) and set up a target next to the Bird Feeder at 25-yards. This is only a 5-shot group but to me very interesting results. The Red Arrow shows where I was aiming and the light wind was coming from my right. The furthest hole ( upper left ) is 2.5" from dead center. The closest hole is only 3/4" from dead center. No excuses fellows but I did shoot this fairly fast.

Maybe that Squirrel wasn’t so lucky after all.

ThomasT