Fun with Lab Radar Data - Initial findings on variability of BC as shot
- By AlanMcD
- General Discussion
- 47 Replies
OK - I've now been playing around with fitting the data and comparing the resulting equations for 3rd, 4th, and 5th power polynomials for several days, and have learned a lot. I do think I need to get some longer trace data to work with, as all I have so far that is "good" has the first point picked up a little less than 7 yards out, and ends at the target at about 42 yards out. I do have several shots of this data, but would like to see what I get with much more distance - but I don't reguallry shoot beyond 55 yards so it would not be much longer.
The short answer I can give is that al three do a very good of creating a usable "smoothing" equation for the range of good data, but I trust none of them for forecasting the results for more than a few yards outside the range of data that was used to create the equation. Additionally, how good that forecast is will depend on the results of each individual shot, but in general I would trust the 3rd order fit better than the other two - they can get wacky really fast, at least with the data that I have on hand to work with.
To illustrate the fit, I'll show four plots. All four show the results of each equation plotted for speed against distance, and the plots run from zero to 50 yards, but have grey boxes covering the first 6.5 yards and last 8 yards, as these ranges do not have any usable data from the Lab Radar for creating the equations.
The first three plots all use the same shot data, but vary the amount of the data used to create the equations. Plot 4 shows a different shot:
- Plot 1 uses all data from shots ranging from 7 to 42 yards (63 data points),
- Plot 2 uses data only from shots ranging from 15 to 35 yards (36 data points) - the other points are all "forecasts" for speed
- Plot 3 uses data only from shots ranging from 18 to 32 yards (25 data points) - same as above, and is illustrative of how fast things can fall off
- Plot 4 is the same data range as Plot 3, but show the results form a different shot (thus looks a good bit different).
In the original post, and later update to GA BC values, I used the forecasted speeds from 0 and 50 yards. When I recalculate them using 7 and 42 yard smoothed data (staying fully inside the range of data used for the equations) I get the following list of BCs for the five shots:
0.0307, 0.0355, 0.0352, 0.0355, and 0.0343 - this gives a spread of 0.0048 in BC values, for a bit over 13% of variation, so the original point still holds for this data.
It has been fun learning through this, and I'll learn much more going forward. Interestingly, none of the three really match what the Lab Radar says for muzzle velocity that well - sometimes the 3rd order is better, and sometimes the 4th order is better. I'll have to do more testing on that.
The short answer I can give is that al three do a very good of creating a usable "smoothing" equation for the range of good data, but I trust none of them for forecasting the results for more than a few yards outside the range of data that was used to create the equation. Additionally, how good that forecast is will depend on the results of each individual shot, but in general I would trust the 3rd order fit better than the other two - they can get wacky really fast, at least with the data that I have on hand to work with.
To illustrate the fit, I'll show four plots. All four show the results of each equation plotted for speed against distance, and the plots run from zero to 50 yards, but have grey boxes covering the first 6.5 yards and last 8 yards, as these ranges do not have any usable data from the Lab Radar for creating the equations.
The first three plots all use the same shot data, but vary the amount of the data used to create the equations. Plot 4 shows a different shot:
- Plot 1 uses all data from shots ranging from 7 to 42 yards (63 data points),
- Plot 2 uses data only from shots ranging from 15 to 35 yards (36 data points) - the other points are all "forecasts" for speed
- Plot 3 uses data only from shots ranging from 18 to 32 yards (25 data points) - same as above, and is illustrative of how fast things can fall off
- Plot 4 is the same data range as Plot 3, but show the results form a different shot (thus looks a good bit different).
In the original post, and later update to GA BC values, I used the forecasted speeds from 0 and 50 yards. When I recalculate them using 7 and 42 yard smoothed data (staying fully inside the range of data used for the equations) I get the following list of BCs for the five shots:
0.0307, 0.0355, 0.0352, 0.0355, and 0.0343 - this gives a spread of 0.0048 in BC values, for a bit over 13% of variation, so the original point still holds for this data.
It has been fun learning through this, and I'll learn much more going forward. Interestingly, none of the three really match what the Lab Radar says for muzzle velocity that well - sometimes the 3rd order is better, and sometimes the 4th order is better. I'll have to do more testing on that.
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